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Posts Tagged: Richard Howitt
California agriculture to suffer $1 billion in drought losses
The story was based on a report released Tuesday by the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences. The 2014 drought, the report says, is responsible for the greatest water loss ever seen in California agriculture - about one third less than normal.
A key concern is the loss of agricultural jobs, said lead author Richard Howitt at a press conference about the report. "What really hurts is you are also losing 17,000 jobs," Howitt said. "(These jobs) are from a sector that has the least ability to roll with the punches."
Consumer food prices will be largely unaffected. Higher prices at the grocery store of high-value California crops like nuts, wine grapes and dairy foods are driven more by market demand than by the drought.
The report calls the groundwater situation in California "a slow-moving train wreck."
“California's agricultural economy overall is doing remarkably well, thanks mostly to groundwater reserves,” said Jay Lund, a co-author of the study and director of the Center for Watershed Sciences. “But we expect substantial local and regional economic and employment impacts. We need to treat that groundwater well so it will be there for future droughts.”
California is currently the only Western state without a framework for groundwater management.
The UC Davis news team has provided these resources about the new drought report:
- Read the full report.
- Watch the recorded webcast of report press briefing.
- Download photos
- Download audio sound bites from lead author.
The report says the Central Valley is hardest hit, particularly the Tulare Basin, with projected losses of $810 million, or 2.3 percent, in crop revenue; $203 million in dairy and livestock value; and $453 million in additional well-pumping costs.
Drought impacts being felt
The ongoing drought has contributed to declines in Fresno County crop values, reported Bob Rodriguez in the Fresno Bee. Fresno County's overall gross value fell 2.2 percent to $6.4 billion in 2013, and with the reduction lost its bragging rights as the No. 1 ag county in California. Tulare County took the No. 1 spot with a record $7.8 billion in ag value, riding on robust dairy prices.
Fresno County Agricultural Commissioner Les Wright said the drought -- one of the worst in state history -- has pinched the production of several west side field crops including cotton, corn silage and barley. The field crop category fell by 42 percent.
The California dream is imperiled by climate change
"The climate is an angry beast and we're poking it with a sharp stick" said Benjamin Santer, a research scientist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
The conference, hosted by UC's Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, covered water use, adaptation to a changed climate and tangible predicted impacts on California's agricultural production, the story said.
Another speaker at the event, Dan Sumner, director of the UC Agricultural Issues Center, said California agriculture and policy should look beyond the state's borders. As temperatures rise and weather patterns change, crops may be better adapted to other states and countries and, potentially, California less so. Already a migration toward greener pastures for range cattle has begun.
Gov. Jerry Brown was a featured speaker at the conference. He discussed a report released Monday by the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences that predicts a $1.7 billion loss to California agriculture because of the 2014 drought. He said California is at the "epicenter" of climate change and called for the state's residents and people and governments of other states to work with him to halt the planet's rising temperatures.
Richard Howitt, professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Davis and lead author of the study, predicted climate change will lead to an inevitable decline in agriculture.
"We will have more land (to farm) than water to irrigate," he said.
In a Sacramento Bee story about the conference, written by Edward Ortiz, Maximillian Auffhammer, professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy at UC Berkeley, called the effects of climate change "slow moving," a pace that gives the ag industry time to deal with climatic uncertainties.
Additional coverage:
In California, Climate Issues Moved to Fore by Governor
Jennifer Medina, New York Times
Gov. Brown: California at 'Epicenter' of Climate Change
CBS News Los Angeles
Governor Jerry Brown calls for action on climate change, irks protesters over fracking
Jessica Calefati and Paul Rogers, San Jose Mercury News
Wide-ranging impacts of the California drought expected this summer
The article said west side farming giant Harris Ranch plans to fallow thousands of acres of cropland and use it's scarce water supplies to irrigate permanent crops: almonds, pistachios and asparagus. The ranch says it will hire at least 1,000 fewer field workers than usual this year.
“The trees are there. They can't be moved, they can't be put away,” said David Goldhamer, UC Cooperative Extension specialist emeritus in the Department of Land, Air and Water Resources at UC Davis.“They can't be put on hold for a year.”
Most growers will be able to squeeze out a crop, although some will have to settle for sprinkling just enough water on the trees to keep them alive. Goldhamer said yields will fall by as much as 25 percent, mainly because the almonds themselves won't grow to full size.
“You'll have a crop, (but) the nuts will be small,” Goldhamer said.
The Bee article also outlined the drought's projected impact on the state ag economy. The water coalition said farm production could fall by more than $3.5 billion, nearly a tenth of the usual $44 billion in annual production. Factoring in related businesses, the state's economy could lose $7.5 billion, the coalition said.
Richard Howitt, professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at UC Davis, said at least 20,000 farmworkers will lose their jobs, putting enormous strain on areas of California where unemployment is typically in double-digit percentages even during good times.
A post in the Rural California Report blog of the California Institute for Rural Studies painted a more detailed portrait of the California ag economy during the drought.
Philip Martin, professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economic at UC Davis, says that with a $1 million reduction in farm revenue, 20 to 50 jobs are lost. However, with less water, farmers shift their water use from low value crops like cotton to high value crops like melons. These high value crops located, for the most part, east of Highway 99 in the San Joaquin Valley, are also more labor intensive. This shift in water use could limit the effects of water losses on farm employment numbers. Martin estimates that there will be a reduction of irrigated acres in the San Joaquin Valley from 5 million to between 3.5 and 4 million acres.
Dan Sumner, director of the UC Agricultural Issues Center, summed up the impact of the current drought as follows:
“This is a real idling of land, and there is nothing positive about it. It's not fallowing — that implies a choice. This is not like North Dakota, where we know it's going to get better. We're talking either spending huge sums on bringing water in or thousands of acres lost.”
Experts recommend a change in California water policy
Authors of a newly published water policy book say a new approach is needed to manage California’s aquatic ecosystems, according to a Public Policy Institute of California news release about the publication.
Recommendations include moving away from the current strategy, which aims to save one species at a time under the federal and state Endangered Species Acts. Instead, a broader approach would create better conditions for many species and address the multiple causes of ecosystem decline.
Wide-ranging water policy reforms are detailed in Managing California’s Water: From Conflict to Reconciliation, an in-depth look at the state’s water management challenges. The authors include Richard Howitt, professor and chair of agricultural and resource economics at UC Davis, Jay Lund, director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis, and Peter Moyle, associate director of the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.
The authors say that today’s system of water management, developed in previous times for past conditions, is leading the state down a path of environmental and economic deterioration.
"We’re waiting for the next drought, flood, or lawsuit to bring catastrophe,” the news release quotes co-author Ellen Hanak, senior fellow at PPIC. "But if we take bold steps now, we can move from an era of conflict to one of reconciliation, where water is managed more flexibly and comprehensively, to benefit both the economy and the environment.”
The publication makes water policy recommendations involving:
- Urban conservation
- Goundwater banking
- Water transfers
- Pollution management
- Flood management
The report's suggestions were not met with unanimous support. The Association of California Water Agencies issued a statement yesterday complimenting the authors for bringing attention to the issue, but adding that the report contains "plenty to agree with and plenty to debate."
Release of the report was widely covered by the news media, including:
- Report on state water seeks balance - Modesto Bee
- PPIC takes a crack at California's water stalemate - Sacramento Bee
- Smelt may pay price for healthy estuary - Inside Bay Area
- As $11B water bond looms, book recommends sweeping reform - California Watch
The 503-page PPIC water report.
Farm revenues down just 3 percent due to water losses
The most recent estimates of job losses due to cuts in water allocations from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta are far lower than was first predicted, according to an article published last week in the Contra Costa Times.
In early 2009, UC Davis economist Richard Howitt predicted the drought and new restrictions on Delta pumping would cost 95,000 jobs, but he revised the figure downward a number of times. Even though, the old number is still sometimes used, recently by Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman and Republican U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina, the article said. "Yes, it's a problem when candidates don't use the most recent and accurate figures," Howitt said in an e-mail to reporter Mike Taugher. "I have tried to correct this, but this combined report should help put some of the outdated values to rest."
Current estimates of lost farm revenue in agriculture because of water shortages are $340 million (by Jeffrey Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of Pacific) and $370 million (by Howitt). In both cases, that represents a less than 3 percent decline in San Joaquin Valley farm revenues. Job losses are estimated to be between 5,500 and 7,500 jobs.
